A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
